TIP Sheet
阴谋论 & CONSPIRACISM

You say you believe the government is hiding something at Area 51–captured alien spacecraft, perhaps? 围绕51区的猜测和谣言构成了一个令人敬畏的 阴谋论 (其实有很多理论). 你相信我们中间的外星人是吗 the 人类历史上隐藏的驱动力? 世界顶级领导人(他们并不是大多数人认为的那样)!) are cooperating for personal gain with the alien "reptile overlords" to bring about the enslavement of our species? 你可能是 conspiracist.

You might buy into one or more conspiracy theories without being an all-out conspiracist. Conspiracism is a world view that sees history as driven primarily by interwoven webs of secret conspiracies. 阴谋论 比阴谋论更精简、更克制、范围更有限吗. A 阴谋论 alleges that a secret conspiracy involving hidden actors is behind particular historical events. Its explanation for events usually runs counter to the official or mainstream account, 它本身被看作是精心设计的.

Test your favorite conspiracy against the following components typical of conspiracism and conspiracy theories:

1. THEY (the conspirators) are a relatively small group, but powerful and corrupt. They are evil, or at least selfish, acting in their own interest and against the public interest. 他们很有远见，很有耐心，也很狡猾. 不过, they are not all-powerful or even that smart, really, since WE have figured them out.
2. 我们是一个由自由斗士和自由思想者组成的小团体. 我们是战士，是反抗邪恶的战士.
3. 你太笨了. 为什么你看不出这里发生了什么? (阴谋论者把大多数人归为这一类.)
4. THEY have hidden or destroyed all the evidence that would implicate them and have manufactured false evidence that exculpates them.
5. 你思想封闭. 事实上，你可能就是其中之一.

The comfort of 阴谋论 is that it provides a well-defined enemy and a sense of control (or at least structure) in the face of upheaval and disempowerment; the tendency to perceive conspiracy is more common in groups experiencing social isolation or political marginalization. The freedom fighters of 阴谋论 need not see themselves as being at the mercy of irresistible, 令人费解的, 或者随机的自然或社会力量, 而是作为正义事业的战士. Many, 如果不是大多数, conspiracy theories probably result from the human tendency to look for pattern in chaos-even if there isn't any.

阴谋论和阴谋论有三个共同的问题:

• Unfalsifiability
• Fallacy
• Naivete

Unfalsifiability
The main problem with any particular 阴谋论 is not that it's wrong, but that it's inarguable; not that it's false, 但事实就是这样 证伪. Because it is 证伪, a 阴谋论 is not provable or disprovable.

一个理论是 可证伪 如果有可能用证据来检验它是不是真的. 为了检验一个科学理论, 例如, 科学家会研究大量的证据来形成一个普遍的理论, which she, in turn, would test against more evidence to try to determine whether her theory might be true. Conspiracy theory is untestable because it invariably proposes that the evidence has been tampered with. 事实上，阴谋论做得更多:它断言任何证据 against 理论实际上就是证据 for it, in that it shows the great cunning and power of the conspirators: No evidence? Ah! 那就证明他们把它毁了. 相反的证据? Aha! 看看他们是怎么伪造，贿赂，洗脑，栽赃的....

Most conspiracy theories, then, are to some extent simply an article of faith.

Fallacy
In addition to being 证伪, conspiracy theories fall into a variety of fallacies. 例如，证据不足导致的谬误 草率的结论. 把阴谋者妖魔化的倾向属于 人身攻击 fallacy. 循环推理或特殊辩护 出现的时候, while the freedom fighters agree in principle that claims should be substantiated by evidence, 在特殊情况下 this 阴谋，证据已被遗失/篡改/捏造/销毁. 非信徒被迫进入 虚假的困境要么宣布自己与反叛者站在一起，要么自己成为嫌疑犯. 此外，不太可能的同谋者(想想乔治·W·布什)之间的联系. 布什和金正日, perhaps), 通过他们卑鄙的行为, 为了邪恶的结果, 是不可能的和复杂的. When the chain of cause-and-effect breaks down or becomes absurdly long, the 滑坡或可疑的原因 错误的结果. (欲了解更多信息，请参阅TIP Sheet“谬论与宣传”.")

以下是一个阴谋的总结 single 阴谋的网站. 不要草率下结论, 对阴谋家的妖魔化/非人化, 有问题的原因, 还有特别的恳求:

外星人(“爬虫人," actually fallen angels; chapter and verse usually cited here) have co-mingled alien and human DNA since ancient times, 尽管几个世纪以来明显的外星人特征已经消失了. 最新的美国.S. 与外星人签署条约的总统是乔治·W·布什. 布什，他自己就是部分爬虫人. 众议院的议员也是共和党人. 根据条约的条款, 一小群人类接受了很酷的外星技术，作为回报.S. government cover-up, and the aliens are free to abduct random humans for breeding experiments. 外星人还可以吃小孩. 他们每年吃掉大约20万个，这就是失踪儿童的去向. 他们在选定的被绑架者身上植入微芯片(“野兽的印记”), the better to keep track of the pesky humans when the one-world government finally comes down. GPS技术也是外星人追踪计划的一部分. The United Nations is a first step toward the aliens' one-world government by which they will subjugate earth. 秘密的三边委员会的存在是为了推进外星人的计划, too-you can tell because the Tri-Lateral Commission uses the aliens' spacecraft insignia as its own.... (还有很多. 你可以在 http://www.thewatcherfiles.com/.)

Naivete
What's wrong with the above theory, one might well ask, other than unfalsifiability and fallacy? 英国东安格利亚大学的哲学教授杰瑞·古迪纳夫说.K., points out in his article "Critical Thinking About Conspiracy Theories" (www.uea.ac.英国/ ~ j097 / CONSP01.htm) that "believers" often fail to take a sufficiently critical look at the quality of evidence, 尽管如此. 阴谋论的客观证据通常是粗略的或缺乏的. 目击证人的证据, then, 是支柱, even though study after study demonstrates the inaccuracy of most eyewitness accounts. Moreover, 阴谋证人通常会被一次或两次从说话人身边带走, who knows someone who knows someone whose neighbor personally was abducted by the aliens (the "friend of a friend of a friend" syndrome. 欲了解更多信息，请参阅提示表“都市传奇”.")

Goodenough observes that believers typically make another mistake of naivete: Faced with a choice between a complex, 可疑的解释和简单, 平凡的一个, 他们更喜欢复合体. 这违反了……的原则
奥卡姆剃刀, which states that the better explanation is usually the one requiring the fewest unsupported assumptions. 换句话说，当你听到蹄声时，想想马，而不是斑马.

Also lacking in 阴谋论 is a sense of the proper economy of means to achieve ends, 前言说. 为什么要这么辛苦呢? For any 阴谋论, ask why conspirators would go to such tortuous lengths. In real life, means are proportionate and usually only as complex as is necessary to accomplish ends. Ordinary people, 例如, don't choose the most complicated route to work. 在某种程度上，手段越来越, 不必要的复杂, 阴谋论的可能性越来越小.

“就因为你多疑..."
不过, 俗话说得好, 仅仅因为你是偏执狂，并不意味着他们不会找你麻烦. 否认阴谋的存在是荒谬的. The assassination of Abraham Lincoln was a conspiracy (how large a conspiracy is still a matter of debate), 1944年刺杀希特勒未遂也是如此. Still unsettled is whether the death of Marilyn Monroe was a conspiracy involving the Mafia and the Kennedy brothers. And new information about covert government actions surfaces with regularity in almost every nation in the world, 模糊了可信和不可信之间的界限.

Since real life imitates 阴谋论, the best we can do is test what we hear. 如果可能，测试可证伪性. 测试逻辑谬误. 检验证人的真实性. 检验证词的质量. 测试不受支持的假设. 运用常识. 因为真相就在那里...